Consumers Apparently Still Strong

Surprisingly enough (although not terribly shocking), advance estimates for U.S. food and retail sales for January 2022 were $649.8 Billion, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. This value represents an increase of 3.8% from the previous month, and a 13.0% increase from January 2021.

Total sales for the period of November 2021 through January 2022 were also up 16.1% from that same period a year prior. Retail trade sales grew 4.4% from December 2021, and up 11.4% from the year prior. The decline in December sales is ostensibly due to supply chain concerns which caused consumers to get in on holiday shopping before it was too late. I’ll also note that December PCE was down (although that is seemingly just a one-off). January’s increase is likely due to cash & gifts acquired during the holidays to buy more stuff that we don’t need.

The proverbial floodgates were opened throughout 2021, which presumably sent consumers on an absolute tear, and has done an absolute number on supply chains. Although that wasn’t enough to drive the U.S. trade deficit up 27% in 2021. The euphoric tendencies and bull market-ness of the current economy honestly shows no signs of slowing down. Coachella now reportedly has waived all Covid restrictions so you know in the future we can only expect a part 2 of the proverbial opening of the floodgates. Buckle up, baby.