U.S. Jobless Claims Fall to 215,000…We’re Back?

Coming off strong from the Omicron ridden economy, jobless claims crept lower in the week ending February 26th. And we are still near historic lows in what is presumably a strong labor market.

Seasonally adjusted claims were down to 215,000, down 18,00 from the prior week’s revised level.

Insured unemployment, did rise minimally by 2,000 to 1,476,000. Still fairly insignificant in my opinion, as we are well below pre-pandemic levels and surpassing levels not seen since the early 1970’s.

This report was a pleasant surprise. The outlook going into 2022 was less than ideal. Surges in Omicron, and absolutely nuclear CPI prints, economists could have gauged that jobless claims would steadily rise. Despite virtually every economic headwind, the labor market is still surprisingly strong. Employers were not willing to reduce their workforces I suppose.

Now the one thing to bear in mind is to what the Fed’s abolishment of QE Infinity (gone, but never forgotten) and rate raises will do to the labor market. Ostensibly, hiring will slow, although it’s hard to make the case that labor forces will be reduced as a result. THE ROARING TWENTIES ARE BACK, EVERYONE.